The model favors the Tennessee Titans (-3) versus the Denver Broncos, despite the odds being against them.
The simulations were run 10,000 times.
The Titans will be looking to get back on track after last week's setback in Kansas City, when they blew a fourth-quarter lead and lost in overtime, 20-17.
The Titans will be led by two-time NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry.
Who grabbed the lead for the season from Cleveland's Nick Chubb with his fifth consecutive 100-yard game last week.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill (ankle) expects to return after missing the past two games.